All that notwithstanding, Google cutting the check is a concession to the merits of the Antitrust Division’s case. As Lee Hepner put it, “If it wasn’t clear already, Google is acknowledging that actual monetary damages, even if trebled, are an insufficient deterrent for a trillion dollar entity to illegally maintain a monopoly.”

There are a couple of things going on here. First, Google has an unlimited budget for its antitrust defense, and it also does an immense amount of product testing. It’s quite likely that it did mock trials in front of test juries, and found that the outcome probably wasn’t good. The judge in the case, Leonie Brinkema, has been pretty annoyed at Google, so it’s not a promising outcome if they go with a bench trial. But they will bet on the judge than a jury. Second, circuit courts are usually more reluctant to overturn a jury than a judge, so Google wants Brinkema to have to author an opinion that they can then try to overturn.