The United States' economy looks strong compared to recent history, but comparing it to countries abroad, the Biden-era economy looks even more amazing.
Too bad prices are up 20% on average since 2020, and aren’t coming back down. That the 2023-2024 inflation rate is only 3% doesn’t matter when wages never caught up with the giant price jumps from the pandemic.
Prices have risen 20.8% since the pandemic-induced recession began in February 2020, with just 6% of the nearly 400 items the Bureau of Labor Statistics tracks cheaper today.
That’s well above the historic average for a four-year period. For comparison, inflation rose 18.9 percent in the 2010s, 28.4 percent in the 2000s and 32.4 percent in the 1990s.
wages never caught up with the giant price jumps from the pandemic
I’m gonna have to go ahead and sorta disagree with you there
I was gonna link you to wage numbers or find something in my post, but it’s actually right there in your link, in the quote from Mark Hamrick. “ Will consumers suddenly feel relieved from the burden of elevated prices? No. But they are supported by a still robust job market that supports employment and wage gains rising above the recent pace of inflation.”
Hm - I interpreted “recent” as one way, but yeah, that’s fair, you could interpret “recent” as him meaning the last year or something. Here’s a summary, then, of how wages at the bottom end have kept pace with inflation over the last few years. “Real wages of low-wage workers grew 12.1% between 2019 and 2023.” Cumulative inflation over that time span has been about 18% (which is massive), but low-end wages in current dollars also grew by 35% cumulatively in that time, well outpacing inflation.
What numbers are you looking at that say low income wages haven’t kept pace with inflation? Like what kind of cumulative current-dollar wages, and what cumulative inflation, are you claiming? If my stuff is propaganda numbers, then what are the real numbers?
Inflation-adjusted wages have ticked very slightly down at the median (like a few percent), gone down a bit at the top end, and gone up significantly both at the bottom end and in the average. It’s a complex topic and you can find a variety of numbers both on the income and inflation sides, but they generally all paint that same story (which is, itself, complex enough that you can paint a bunch of different narratives from it, by putting up the numbers for average vs. median vs. lowest-quartile or etc).
Not to be rude, but do you even read your own sources?
Wage rates remain insufficient for individuals and families working to make ends meet. Nowhere can a worker at the 10th percentile of the wage distribution earn enough to meet a basic family budget.
It’s literally at the top of your article, under “Key Findings”, probably because they knew that it’s easy to misunderstand statistical data, or to claim it says what you want it to.
So the percentiles you are talking about still cannot keep their heads above water, despite the growth of wages in many of their jobs, and the other percentiles haven’t seen that level of wage growth, or have even lost ground to inflation, but you’re over here going, “I’ve got great news for you, you’re actually not in a bad financial position, stop taking your actual lived experiences over my big numbers!”
I mean, sure. 🙂 I was trying to consolidate comments into a single stream of conversation since it’s already sort of turning into a bickering sprawl, but if you’d like to reply to it here instead of there, then I’m fine with that too:
Yes, lower income people in this country are still fucked. If anything I was saying made it sound like I thought they were not, that was not the intent. My point was that Biden has been helping them get out of it, to a certain degree, in a way that’s actually very unusual for an American president (they generally don’t give a shit about the working class). And that happened even during a historic level of economic challenge to tackle his way out of. And therefore that attacking him by pretending that the opposite is happening is erroneous at best and openly dishonest at worst.
That’s real wages (inflation adjusted dollars). I.e. Wages at the bottom end have outpaced inflation by 12.1%. That’s why I quoted that sentence in my message…
To get current dollars you would do 1.121 * 1.18 - 1 = 32% growth in current-dollar wages (where 1.121 comes from 12.1% cumulative constant-dollar wage gain, and 1.18 comes from 18% cumulative inflation). I saw 35% somewhere else instead of 32%; like I said there are small differences, but that overall broad picture is the same from all sources I’ve seen.
So, you’re not clear on the difference between current dollar wages and constant dollar wages, but you’re lecturing me on what is the real economic picture is that I’m not understanding? Okay, so tell me. What are you saying is happening? Have I understood you correctly that you claim current dollar wages have risen by only 12%?
And yes, lower income people in this country are still fucked. If anything I was saying made it sound like I thought they were not, that was not the intent. My point was that Biden has been helping them get out of it, to a certain degree, in a way that’s actually very unusual for an American president (they generally don’t give a shit about the working class). And that happened even during a historic level of economic challenge to tackle his way out of. And therefore that attacking him by pretending that the opposite is happening is erroneous at best and openly dishonest at worst.
I am pointing out that, as far as I can tell, you made a fundamental error of confusing inflation-adjusted wages for non-inflation-adjusted wages, leading your entire point to be backwards from what your own source was claiming. And so I asked you what’s up with that, and if you want to explain, or if I have misunderstood anything.
You choosing not to explain (but instead abandon the details completely and insult the whole concept of doing math to demonstrate or understand something) pretty much provides the answer, to me. But sure! Keep going about how I’m just spouting propaganda that doesn’t match the factual reality. The more that you can take it into the realm of us just being hostile and condescending to each other, I think, the further away from “hey let’s look at the facts and what’s actually going on,” and the better for you (and that tactic is working to a certain extent, I think.)
Saying low income workers in America don’t make a living wage, and that it’s not a healthy economy or society, I’ll 100% agree with. Pretty sure I made that clear already, but if I did not, there it is again.
I understand the difference between nominal wages and inflation-adjusted just fine. That you keep using the nominal wage increase of 35% is dishonest, without providing any context, which you keep not doing, or even directly claiming it was Biden’s doing, which it was not:
wages have gone up hugely…, which was Biden’s doing
Wage growth at the bottom happened because low-wage workers realized during the pandemic that they could survive without their bottom-wage jobs, which gave them the leverage to demand higher wages when bottom-wage jobs opened back up.
Too bad prices are up 20% on average since 2020, and aren’t coming back down. That the 2023-2024 inflation rate is only 3% doesn’t matter when wages never caught up with the giant price jumps from the pandemic.
People are still hurting.
https://www.bankrate.com/banking/federal-reserve/latest-inflation-statistics/
I’m gonna have to go ahead and sorta disagree with you there
I was gonna link you to wage numbers or find something in my post, but it’s actually right there in your link, in the quote from Mark Hamrick. “ Will consumers suddenly feel relieved from the burden of elevated prices? No. But they are supported by a still robust job market that supports employment and wage gains rising above the recent pace of inflation.”
They’re catching up with the recent pace, which is back down (i.e. 3.3%), not the post-2020 pace. It still hasn’t caught up.
As you quoted:
Hm - I interpreted “recent” as one way, but yeah, that’s fair, you could interpret “recent” as him meaning the last year or something. Here’s a summary, then, of how wages at the bottom end have kept pace with inflation over the last few years. “Real wages of low-wage workers grew 12.1% between 2019 and 2023.” Cumulative inflation over that time span has been about 18% (which is massive), but low-end wages in current dollars also grew by 35% cumulatively in that time, well outpacing inflation.
What numbers are you looking at that say low income wages haven’t kept pace with inflation? Like what kind of cumulative current-dollar wages, and what cumulative inflation, are you claiming? If my stuff is propaganda numbers, then what are the real numbers?
Inflation-adjusted wages have ticked very slightly down at the median (like a few percent), gone down a bit at the top end, and gone up significantly both at the bottom end and in the average. It’s a complex topic and you can find a variety of numbers both on the income and inflation sides, but they generally all paint that same story (which is, itself, complex enough that you can paint a bunch of different narratives from it, by putting up the numbers for average vs. median vs. lowest-quartile or etc).
Not to be rude, but do you even read your own sources?
It’s literally at the top of your article, under “Key Findings”, probably because they knew that it’s easy to misunderstand statistical data, or to claim it says what you want it to.
So the percentiles you are talking about still cannot keep their heads above water, despite the growth of wages in many of their jobs, and the other percentiles haven’t seen that level of wage growth, or have even lost ground to inflation, but you’re over here going, “I’ve got great news for you, you’re actually not in a bad financial position, stop taking your actual lived experiences over my big numbers!”
See above
So, no actual answer then. Got it.
I mean, sure. 🙂 I was trying to consolidate comments into a single stream of conversation since it’s already sort of turning into a bickering sprawl, but if you’d like to reply to it here instead of there, then I’m fine with that too:
Yes, lower income people in this country are still fucked. If anything I was saying made it sound like I thought they were not, that was not the intent. My point was that Biden has been helping them get out of it, to a certain degree, in a way that’s actually very unusual for an American president (they generally don’t give a shit about the working class). And that happened even during a historic level of economic challenge to tackle his way out of. And therefore that attacking him by pretending that the opposite is happening is erroneous at best and openly dishonest at worst.
I don’t think anyone here is claiming Biden is attempting to hurt the economy? I certainly haven’t seen that.
But he is also not some kind of economic saviour, and most of the changes to the economy are not under his control anyways.
But you’re the one who is trying to claim 1) the economy is good, 2) Biden is to thank.
deleted by creator
That’s real wages (inflation adjusted dollars). I.e. Wages at the bottom end have outpaced inflation by 12.1%. That’s why I quoted that sentence in my message…
To get current dollars you would do 1.121 * 1.18 - 1 = 32% growth in current-dollar wages (where 1.121 comes from 12.1% cumulative constant-dollar wage gain, and 1.18 comes from 18% cumulative inflation). I saw 35% somewhere else instead of 32%; like I said there are small differences, but that overall broad picture is the same from all sources I’ve seen.
So, you’re not clear on the difference between current dollar wages and constant dollar wages, but you’re lecturing me on what is the real economic picture is that I’m not understanding? Okay, so tell me. What are you saying is happening? Have I understood you correctly that you claim current dollar wages have risen by only 12%?
And yes, lower income people in this country are still fucked. If anything I was saying made it sound like I thought they were not, that was not the intent. My point was that Biden has been helping them get out of it, to a certain degree, in a way that’s actually very unusual for an American president (they generally don’t give a shit about the working class). And that happened even during a historic level of economic challenge to tackle his way out of. And therefore that attacking him by pretending that the opposite is happening is erroneous at best and openly dishonest at worst.
Bruh, you are throwing around back of the napkin math, and you are not impressing anyone with it.
Your own sources say that the groups who saw the most wage gains are still unable to make a livable wage.
It is not a healthy economy or society.
You are obfuscating.
I am pointing out that, as far as I can tell, you made a fundamental error of confusing inflation-adjusted wages for non-inflation-adjusted wages, leading your entire point to be backwards from what your own source was claiming. And so I asked you what’s up with that, and if you want to explain, or if I have misunderstood anything.
You choosing not to explain (but instead abandon the details completely and insult the whole concept of doing math to demonstrate or understand something) pretty much provides the answer, to me. But sure! Keep going about how I’m just spouting propaganda that doesn’t match the factual reality. The more that you can take it into the realm of us just being hostile and condescending to each other, I think, the further away from “hey let’s look at the facts and what’s actually going on,” and the better for you (and that tactic is working to a certain extent, I think.)
Saying low income workers in America don’t make a living wage, and that it’s not a healthy economy or society, I’ll 100% agree with. Pretty sure I made that clear already, but if I did not, there it is again.
I understand the difference between nominal wages and inflation-adjusted just fine. That you keep using the nominal wage increase of 35% is dishonest, without providing any context, which you keep not doing, or even directly claiming it was Biden’s doing, which it was not:
Wage growth at the bottom happened because low-wage workers realized during the pandemic that they could survive without their bottom-wage jobs, which gave them the leverage to demand higher wages when bottom-wage jobs opened back up.
Yeah, a more accurate title would be:
Thanks Obama