Seriously, Joe, do you not know the stakes? “Sure, America fell to fascism, but I tried my best.” For fucks sake, Trump has straight up said he was going to be a dictator, and the Supreme Court will back him all the way. It’s unbelievable that all that stands between us and the fall of the republic is a man in his 80s who isn’t fully cognizant of the situation.
This is an argument for why Biden is able to lead. Speaking for myself, I’m not so worried that Biden is unable to lead. He’s old and obviously slowing down, but he’s got decades of experience and, as you say, a whole administration’s worth of expertise.
I’m worried that he is unable to win.
At this point, no one else can. Straight up. To think otherwise is fucking delusional and demonstrates a lack of knowledge of us politics and it’s populace.
Leaving this comment here and cleaning up some of this thread.
You’re welcome to disagree with each other. Discussion is definitely encouraged. This thread of comments, however, rapidly devolved into name calling.
It’s understandable that you’re upset with what this person is advocating when this election is so important and you disagree with their idea, but we can’t have a nice space when you attack anyone who disagrees with you. A three sentence long comment calling people delusional isn’t being nice. Hopping into this post and telling the poster to leave with their bullshit is not nice. You need to give others the benefit of the doubt and treat them with good faith.
Polling - released by Biden’s campaign to try to prove his electability - shows other Democratic candidates right now performing just as well or slightly better than Biden with voters, and none of them have been running a campaign for the last year. In other words, without even trying and without the same level of name recognition, they are on par with Biden, and none of them have the baggage he does.
In the voting booth, incumbents ALWAYS have a MASSIVE advantage.
Polling is incredibly unreliable. That is people that pick up the phone and talk to pollsters. Do you know anyone under 60 who does that? Additionally, a lot of those calls are on landlines. How many people do you know who have landlines? How many of those are under 60?
The polls are heavily skewed towards boomers. This is the last election where boomers will be relevant. Millennials and Gen Z matter more in this election than ever before.
Replacing an incumbent 3-4 months before an election is the stupidest fucking idea since trickle down economics.
All these incorrect assumptions of yours could have been answered simply by actually reading the poll report before making claims about it:
https://www.filesforprogress.org/datasets/2024/6/dfp_post_first_presidential_debate.pdf
Literally entirely online.
Polling has long since shifted away from relying on landline cold-calls. And I agree that now is certainly sub-optimal for a change; that should have happened during the Primary (you know, where candidates present themselves to voters to find out who voters want), rather than the DNC pressuring other democrats out of running. But better late than never.
In the end, you and I are probably never going to see eye-to-eye, because of one fundamental difference of beliefs; you believe Biden might win. I don’t.
Since it seems clear that Biden isn’t going to step aside, I really hope you’re right and I’m wrong, but I’m not banking on it.
A “web panel”? You are suggesting that polling done via “web panel” is reliable?
So, these’s this bridge that I’ve been meaning to show you. It seems right up your alley, it’s cheap too!
Edit: fuck me, is this a fucking twitter poll???
Double edit: nope, a twitter poll would actually be more reliable. https://www.dataforprogress.org/our-methodology
Ah, a political strategist and a statistician as well, able to dismiss stances discussed by Democratic Congresspersons and polling methodologies at a glance (and always, I notice, without any supporting evidence). Truly, you are a modern Renaissance Man.
For anyone else who comes along who is not a bad-faith actor, DfP is ranked in the top 10% of pollsters by FiveThirtyEight, and is number 24 out of their 270+ tracked pollsters.