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Cake day: June 19th, 2023

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  • Okay that’s good, spaces for hydro storage isn’t an issue.

    The only problems/questions left are:

    • Are the spaces spread out in the right areas, and can they be chosen in the right combination that won’t lead to problems down the line? (I think that’s beyond the scope of that document, but we’ll assume it is all good for now)
    • Time (let’s just assume it’s faster to get it all built than nuclear so we can examine hydro storage more)
    • Cost. Looking at the link I find:

    Thus, the expected cost of a 1,000 megawatt pumped hydro energy storage system with a head of 600 m and 14 hours of storage is about $1.8 billion.

    1000 MW = 1GW : $1.8B

    And your quote says we need 450 GWh of storage.

    So 450 x 1.8 = $810B

    (I’m assuming I haven’t made a mistake about the 14 hours of storage and the converting between GW and GWh).

    Our current GDP is 1.6 trillion.

    So we could do it, but it would cost us half of our GDP for one year (but we’d be spreading it out over multiple years).

    I’m assuming economies of scale would come into effect, but how much more efficient can you be at making and pouring concrete.

    I haven’t found any source on the fiscal cost of the Coalition’s plan (I doubt they even know, and I suspect that they’re just trying to extend the life of coal by relying on delays), but it begs the question:

    Would their seven proposed nuclear stations be cheaper than $810 Billion?


  • The cost of nuclear is only at the commissioning and decommissioning of the plant. But during the runtime of the plant is remarkably cheap. People just balk at the initial price because so much of the cost is up front.

    Another thing to remember about recycling is that we as a species were producing nuclear waste before we had reactors that could use recycled waste so globally speaking we currently have a surplus of waste. Recently the US had to restart a reactor because they didn’t have enough materials to use for powering deep space probes. It’s not implausible that we could run out of waste to use and have to produce more fresh fuel.

    On the topic of safety though, modern reactor designs require power coming in to keep the fissile material frozen to continue the reaction.

    As soon as the power is cut, the coolant is cut, part of the plant is destroyed, or something else goes wrong, the plant stops working. If the plant stops working, there’s nothing to cool down the fissile material.

    The fissile material’s own radioactivity heats it up to the point that it melts and pours away over what’s essentially a pyramid plinko drain splitting up the liquid into many separate pools. (If it helps, think of your bath’s drain if the pipe splits into two, which split into four, which split into eight, and on and on until a bath tub’s water has been separated into an ice cube tray the size of a tennis court.)

    Fissile material only reacts when it’s next to enough fissile material.

    And since it’s separated and spread out, there’s more reaction.

    If you cut the power for the coolant pumps, the fuel melts, separates (by the power of gravity) and the reaction stops.

    If the coolant leaks, the fuel melts, separates and stops reacting.

    If you crash a plane into the reactor itself, the cooling mechanisms don’t exist anymore and the fuel melts and pours out the nearest holes (either the drain or spilling outside the reactor into the containment structure, or even outside if need be), spreading out, separating, and reacting no more.

    Modern reactors have more in common with an ice-cube hoisted above the great pyramid of giza than they do the fukushima or chernobyl plants. Both of those were designed to require power to prevent a dangerous meltdown which turn into a runaway reactions, whereas modern reactors make it so a meltdown prevents reactions.


  • That source doesn’t have a link to their paper that works.

    But based on what was stated just in your link, they say if we build enough storage then we wouldn’t need any baseload generation, which is technically correct.

    In particular, they’re relying on hydro and gas storage.

    (specifically renewable gas and not natural gas, because natural gas is still bad)

    But as far as I know we can’t build anywhere near enough hydro in Australia. Gas storage could technically work, but you’d have to build a ludicrous and economically infeasible amount of gas storage, or pump it into empty spaces underground (but I don’t think we have enough of those in Australia either).

    I’m under the impression that modern nuclear plants as baseload production would still be cheaper than the renewable gas storage we would need to maintain power.

    Do you have a working link to the original paper or a study into how much renewable gas storage we’d require and the costs associated with it?




  • Nitpick: Nuclear isn’t obsolete, it’s as modern as the design you choose.

    Nuclear isn’t a replacement for renewables (like the coalition tries to suggest), and it isn’t evil (like an internal faction in the greens tries to suggest).

    We need:

    • Renewables: for the best power production we can produce (when available)
    • Energy Storage: to store excess renewable power for when it’s not available
    • Nuclear: to maintain baseline power (as opposed to peak power) for emergency scenarios.

    Sidenote: Since whenever anyone suggests that nuclear isn’t to be abhorred whenever it’s brought up, here are the 3 common things brought up so no one has to ask it.

    1. Risk of meltdowns
    • Modern designs are meltdown-proof with passive safety built in (as opposed to active safety where you need to keep providing power to keep things safe like Fukushima). You can fly a plane into a modern nuclear reactor and the reaction just stops.
    1. Nuclear proliferation
    • We have our own large amount of uranium on the continent. We don’t need to encourage others to mine and sell it, and we don’t need to sell it overseas ourselves.
    1. Nuclear waste
    • It’s common practice today to simply recycle nuclear waste as nuclear fuel. That way you get many more uses out of with less overall fuel that needs to be produced. By the end of it you have a kind of nuclear waste concentrate that burns itself out much quicker (meaning you only need to store it for about 100 years as opposed to 1000s of years). Also, that concentrate itself can be used in things like betavoltaics (think weak but long lasting batteries in things were you don’t want to have to replace the batteries, e.g. pacemakers, smoke detectors, scientific sensors, etc…)











  • I have yet to be given an example of something a “general” intelligence would be able to do that an LLM can’t do.

    Presenting…

    Something a general intelligence can do that an LLM can’t do:

    Play chess: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kvTs_nbc8Eg

    Why can’t it play it? Because LLM’s don’t have memory, so they can’t work with logic. They are the same as the little “next word predictor” in your phone’s keyboard. It just says what it thinks is the most probable next word based on previous words, it’s not actually thinking or understanding anything. So instead, we get moves that don’t make sense or are completely invalid.