Reminder: Russia violated all of these uninformed.
Also, why is this posted here? This is not a meme.
the amount of Fascist, Jingoistic shitposting that favors either Republican or Russian propaganda on social media is STAGGERING. The people arguing for it are more concerned about bathroom gender signs, DEI, wokism, and a bunch of other made up stuff, and not only are they oblivious that their country is being taken over by a foreign aggressor, THEY ARE PROUD OF IT. Because “at least the Russians kill the gays”
We are in this position we are today, because Russia has been waging an information war against NATO countries for 15-20 years. and the seeds they planted during the days of Georgia and Crimea, are blooming into fruit now.
The free world is AT WAR with Russia, and for the time being, America has been conquered. Victory from the jaws of Defeat, for the Russian mafia
Fuck lemmy for leaking politics to every possible community and not removing it on user reports. What a cesspool of a platform.
As i just said in another comment: imagine the backlash if someone were to post something similar with putin face. People are being accused of being russian trolls for the slightest unaligned critic of ukraine government. I’m not questioning it but this post is what propaganda actually looks like
Judging by your other comments, I suppose you get your “news” on fox news…?
How is your comment related to what i just said?
If Russia withdrew their troops, there would be peace immediately.
If Ukraine withdrew their troops, Ukraine would be no more - and there’s no indication Russia would stop there.
Lots of LLM bots today. We may need to start verifying accounts :/
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If Russia withdrew their troops, there would be peace immediately
That’s technically true. However, Russia uses military force in its sphere of influence for a reason, not solely because Putin bad (which he is, I’m a commie and Putin is fascist-adjacent at best).
Russia, like all big capitalist countries, wants to secure a sphere of influence in which it can do easy trade, influence the politics, and generally have support from these countries. The US does this for example with western Europe through NATO, and with less diplomatic methods by supporting coups and invading other countries. China does this through economic trade and through massive investment projects. Russia is in a weak position internationally, barely recovered economically from the dismantling of the USSR, and it’s surrounded by former soviet republics very much in a similar plane (barely economically recovered from the 90s crisis as a consequence of the dismantling of the USSR).
These post-soviet republics, such as Ukraine or Georgia, adopted capitalism (as Russia did) in a very quick and disorderly fashion, and the resulting oligarchs and capitalist owners ended up fumbled in a mix of pro-russian and pro-european/US positions.
The EU and the USA both exert pressure on these countries to try and bring them to their side. Being economically and politically stronger, they can use trade, diplomacy, intelligence and economic means to alienate these countries front the Russian sphere of influence. Russia, in a more precarious and weaker economic and political position, simply doesn’t have the means to maintain the diplomatic, economic and intelligence means to maintain these countries aligned to itself.
The war in Ukraine, much as the interference in Georgian and Romanian elections by the EU, mustn’t be understood as a struggle between freedom and oppression. It’s sadly just a struggle between two capitalist empires, namely Russia and US/EU, fighting for the control of smaller countries that they want aligned to themselves.
Once Russia doesn’t have the means to economically, diplomatically and through intelligence, to influence its former sphere of influence into staying by its side, the only option left is the military route. The US and the EU know this, and they keep trying to mess with Russia’s sphere of influence for gains to their empires. The reality is that there is no good side and no bad side: it’s just struggle between opposing empires.
So yes, technically if Russia withdrew its troops, there would be peace. But this peace would mean that firstly the surrounding regions around Russia, and Russia itself, would become colonies and vassal states of the western world. It wouldn’t mean “freedom” for Ukraine, as we can see by the exploitative contract for the minerals of Ukraine that the US offers. If you think the EU will offer something substantially less exploitative towards Ukrainians, you’re wrong.
Ukraine, sad as it is, as long as it remains a state between empires, will suffer the effects of both. And only socialism in Europe and Russia can offer a meaningful response to this.
- Russia was by no means forced into the conflict. They did it because Putin wants more power for himself.
- Russia has great diplomatic power. They managed to get a Russia loving president in US.
- If Ukraine falls, then there’s going to be some other nation that will be the ”state between empires”. Next will be Moldova. Maybe Russia is brave enough to take on the Baltic countries as well now when the future of NATO is uncertain. If that succeeds, then Poland will be next, and maybe also eastern Germany.
- Ukraine rejected the US offer because it didn’t offer any safety guarantees other than that Trump said that Putin said something. Why should Ukraine sign a deal that won’t end the war?
because Putin wants more power
They managed to get a Russia loving president in US
Holy moly “great men historiography” and “Russia is behind everything I hate” both in one single comment, that’s quite the feat. Great job firstly ignoring the material analysis and geopolitics of the situation and trying to explain history as “big man makes decision”, and then falling for the racist trope that the USA isn’t capable of electing a fascist without external interference, as if the US wasn’t founded in the fascist principles of the Lebensraum and slavery->segregation
If Ukraine falls
Ukraine will not fall. The objective of Russia in this war isn’t pure expansionism further to the west, it’s the imposition of its political principles and strategic desires in its sphere of influence. The Russian government knows it cannot control successfully for a long period of time the now (understandably) anti-Russian radicalised sections of central and western Ukraine, what it wants are concessions in geopolitical and strategic terms. Mark my words: the war in Ukraine will stop sooner than later, and after it, only some sections in eastern Ukraine will be annexed to Russia.
Furthermore your reasoning of “if this nation falls, there’s gonna be the next”, is exactly the way Russia feels about its geopolitical allies. In 1990, there was an agreement that NATO wouldn’t push beyond Germany, and that has been violated first with Poland and then with more countries. Why push a US-backed military alliance to the borders of the US-declared main geopolitical enemy? What consequences do you expect from that? Imagine a Russian-led military coalition pushing for the annexion of Mexico.
Ukraine rejected the US offer because it didn’t offer any safety guarantees
Regardless of safety guarantees, the resources of western Ukraine will be plundered by the NATO block, whether it be EU or the USA I cannot know, but mark my words when you see the economic situation of Ukraine in 2030
There wasn’t peace before Russia invaded. The far-right US puppet regime was slaughtering ethnic Russians in the east, and allowing NATO to move in troop and missile deployments to the Russian border.
Why would Ukraine behave differently after a Russian withdrawal, when they were escalating for 8 years prior to the invasion?
Negotiations without security assurances*
This is the prime stickler with the USA-Ukraine deal that has been discussed on the news
Putin needs to lose something or he’ll just invade someone else.
He only ever invades in response to NATO expansion. Maybe the west should stop trying to move in.
Historically illiterate.
Which Putin invasion was not preceded by another NATO expansion?
The invasion of Crimea and Ukraine. New NATO members joined after that happened in response.
Crimea happened after the US overthrew the government of Ukraine, and installed a far-right regime.
You want to repeat that, but in the same room with a Ukrainian? You have a good dental plan, I hope?
Ukraine, Russia, the DPR and LPR signed a ceasefire agreement, the Minsk Protocol, in September 2014.[40] Ceasefire breaches became rife, 29 in all,[41] and heavy fighting resumed in January 2015, during which the separatists captured Donetsk Airport. A new ceasefire, Minsk II, was agreed on 12 February 2015. Immediately after, separatists renewed their offensive on Debaltseve and forced Ukraine’s military to withdraw.[42] Skirmishes continued but the front line did not change. Both sides fortified their position by building networks of trenches, bunkers and tunnels, resulting in static trench warfare.[43][44] Stalemate led to the war being called a “frozen conflict”,[45] but Donbas remained a war zone, with dozens killed monthly.[46] In 2017, on average a Ukrainian soldier died every three days,[47] with an estimated 40,000 separatist and 6,000 Russian troops in the region.[48][49] By the end of 2017, OSCE observers had counted around 30,000 people in military gear crossing from Russia at the two border checkpoints it was allowed to monitor,[50] and documented military convoys crossing from Russia covertly.[51] All sides agreed to a roadmap for ending the war in October 2019,[52] but it remained unresolved.[53][54] During 2021, Ukrainian fatalities rose sharply and Russian forces massed around Ukraine’s borders.[55] Russia recognised the DPR and LPR as independent states on 21 February 2022 and deployed troops to those territories. On 24 February, Russia began a full-scale invasion of Ukraine, subsuming the war in Donbas into it.
Make no Mistake: Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine since 2014. Russia is the agressor and needs to put in its place.
Russia is trying to destroy Ukraine ever since both of them were founded as independent counties. This is just a reiteration of what we’ve already seen in the russian empire and in the USSR. History is a merry-go-round and I’m getting motion sick of all the rotation.
Edit: typo
Goes back to the Russian Revolution at the very least, though probably to the the Russian Empire. Historical data send to suggest that the Russian elite will not accept anyone but Russian hegemony over the region. The Bolsheviks betrayed the Ukrainian Anarcho-Communists who had helped to defeat the White army because they wanted independent self-governance rather than bowing to the Bolsheviks’ authoritarian Central Council in Moscow.
This is just a reiteration of what we’ve already seen in the russian empire and in the USSR
Comparing the Russian Empire and the USSR is the most ahistorical thing you can possibly do. During the Russian Empire and for all of history before that, Ukraine was a people without a nation. Oppressed, without representation, without borders, without a right to education or even learning to read in their language.
The Bolsheviks, with their first constitution in 1917, granted the right to self-determination and secession to all peoples of the former Russian Empire, which Lenin referred to as “the prison of peoples”. Quite literally after Poland seceded in this legal fashion, the Polish government decided it wanted to return to the Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth borders, and proceeded to unilaterally invade Ukraine and part of modern Belarus. It was the Red Army of the Russian Socialist Federation of Soviet Republics, that fought off the Polish invasion and established a lasting Ukrainian People’s Republic for the first time in history.
This wasn’t without controversy: while Lenin argued for the right to representation and to a Ukrainian Republic within the USSR, others like Rosa Luxembourg argued for a united, more homogeneous sort of socialist soviet nationality that outgrew former nationalisms. It is partially thanks to Lenin that Ukraine ended up having its own borders, administration and representation.
I know what you’ll say: “but Holodomor! Genocide against Ukrainians!”. The famine of the USSR was a sad and unintended consequence of bad policy during the collectivisation/dekulakization process of the early 30s. Millions of people died both within Ukraine and without it, especially as well in Central Asia and southern Russia. As bad as it was, and as avoidable as one can argue it may have been, there’s simply no evidence of any intent of attack towards Ukrainian people, it’s not precedented by anything similar, and it’s not followed by anything similar in the entire history of the USSR.
In those decades and the ones to come, Ukraine would obtain and solidify its own nationality, people would for the first time obtain generalised literacy in their own language, the right to study in their language up to university level, a majority of publications (both journalistic and literary) in Ukrainian, and the very next president of the USSR Nikita Khruschchyov would be Ukrainian.
Attempting to construe a history of oppression of Ukrainians in the USSR is nothing but fictitious, anti-communist and russophobic propaganda, meant to create a divide between Ukrainians and Russians. There are clear geopolitical reasons to do so, and there are clear reasons why Ukrainians are very much afraid or simply hate Russians, because of the modern proto-fascist state that the Russian Republic has become. But creating a line between this capitalist country, the socialist USSR, and the feudalist Russian Empire, is simply an attempt to divide Eastern Europe further and to push Ukraine towards the EU and away from Russia. This point can be argued for without resorting to russophobic and anticommunist myths. We’re smarter than this.
Nah, USSR discarded socialism and communism the moment Lenin decided he didn’t like losing the elections, and Stalin made it worse for decades. There’s nothing anti-communist in calling out an authoritarian dictatorship for what it was.
During the Soviet times there were repeated attempts to homogenize (as you said) all non-russian ethnicities into one big Soviet mass, easy to manage and control. Russian language, culture and values were held as the supposedly communist ideal future at the cost of national identity, replaced by pretense of representation.
Not just Holodomor, but also forced relocations of Ukrainians, Belarusians, Crimean Tatars and other Eastern European ethnicities contributed to that.
So, maybe tune down on Soviet apologia in front of people whose parents and grandparents literally had to live there.
No, the US overthrew the Ukrainian government to install a far-right fascist regime in 2014, and Russia’s was playing defense for 8 years afterward.
https://www.jeffsachs.org/newspaper-articles/6kwrs4pplmwj2nxzy9el73gx2w9cfn
The US and NATO are the main aggressors here.
I’m all for diplomacy. Finding diplomatic solutions to these kinds of problems is the ideal outcome.
When it’s not ideal and you’re dealing with someone irrational or uncooperative, then maybe fighting isn’t the worst way to go.
Bluntly, I support Ukraine. They’re clearly trying to make diplomacy work.
I can’t say the same for Putin/Russia.
In some book there were cannons stamped with “the ultimate reason of kings”. Seems appropriate here.
Quicksilver by Neal Stephenson maybe?
Sounds on brand for him, because Snow Crash has a rail gun named Reason.
They will listen to reason.
Yeah remember that one :-)
Because memes aren’t journalism: you got any sources?
Memes aren’t journalism, but this is a meme community, not a news community. However, one could argue that this is not exactly a meme, so your point is fair.
I’d still like to get the sources. Otherwise, content like this is like disinformation spreads. Meme community or not.
With the time you took to comment you could have looked it up yourself, and then with a bit more time you could have posted the sources here. You’re consciously choosing to not be informed, and to do nothing yourself and expect random people to do work for you.
Researching “20” is hard. Israel certainly likes to claim that other side breaks ceasefires. There is usually an opposing narrative.
It’s OP’s responsibility to give sources on the issue. Don’t shoot the messenger.
Not in a meme community, that’s not the point of the community
You’re not a messenger, you’re whining because you couldn’t bother to Google something yourself
If you insist on the “meme” aspect, how is this post even a meme??
Learn what a meme is before commenting on the topic next time
Would you argue the same way if someone would post libs of Tiktok propaganda here?
No, I’d laugh at you for doing so
And you could have done the same and posted it for the rest of us instead of wagging your finger.
Number of ceasefires: https://kyivindependent.com/zelensky-gave-trump-list-of-all-ceasefires-violated-by-russia/
Number of talks: https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-polytics/3784793-kuleba-ukraine-held-200-rounds-of-talks-with-russia-since-2014-but-that-did-not-stop-putin.html
The source for the meme appears to be a tweet from the Ukraine foreign minister. Zelensky has quoted similar numbers. These numbers are coming out of Ukrainian officials’ mouths and not 3rd party journalists and it’s not at all clear on how they’re counting since I can’t find easily any other sources.
Side note: with how bad Google is nowadays, people should never chide anyone else for being unable to locate a source themselves again.
“Russia violated all of the ceasefires and talks since 2014, but it is really important that the exact number is verified by 3rd parties.”
You dismissing the overall point by focusing on the absolute least important detail. If the number of talks and ceasefires is greater then zero and Russia has violated all of them, then why does it matter if there were two dozen or two hundred?
Because details fucking matter, that’s why? It matters even if the side I’m on is the one potentially exaggerating. Don’t you care to know that? Or do the facts not matter to you anymore?
Because when someone starts arguing that there were 33 violations and not 35 or something along those lines I know they are just trying to derail the discussion away from the point that matters: Russia has consistently violated ceasefires and that is why security guarantees are needed.
We’re talking about major recent history from 2014. Unless they’re 12, they don’t really have an excuse to be this ill informed for an entire decade. The time it took to comment is a drop in the bucket compared to the rest of their time spent in willful ignorance.
I absolutely agree on your point about misinformation. I was trying to hint that maybe none of this belongs here, despite me personally resonating with the “meme”. I guess I am just rambling, don’t mind me.
I agree with you about sources, but instead of asking and waiting you can search for them as well. I did a quick search for some of the information in the image and I got some results about 200 rounds of talks since 2014. Not ones I recognize so I can’t say if they’re legit or not but it only took a few seconds to get that at least that far.
I’m not OP, though. Not everyone will do the googling themselves and if you’re posting stuff like that, I think it’s a responsibility of the OP to supply the sources.
Otherwise, that’s the exact same strategy misinformation peddlers like LibsofTiktok use.
LibsOfTiktok, on the right, was effective. They are, apparently, much better at motivating people than you are.
Also, let’s not pretend you don’t just disagree with what is being said. Nobody asks for sources until it’s an issue somebody might pick up a sign over.
LibsOfTiktok, on the right, was effective. They are, apparently, much better at motivating people than you are.
I don’t get why you’re comparing me to libs of tiktok. Do I look like I’m trying to be an influencer to you? O.o
Also, let’s not pretend you don’t just disagree with what is being said.
I think it’s naive to take anything someone as biased as Selensky is saying at face value.
Nobody asks for sources until it’s an issue somebody might pick up a sign over.
Lol, first day on the internet, I assume? xD /j
This isn’t disinformation unless you don’t believe Zelensky. Besides that, we’re talking about large scale violations.
If you go digging you’ll find literally 10s of thousands of violations, shit just look at this from 2017 https://osce.usmission.gov/on-russias-ongoing-violations-in-ukraine-12/
I suggest using a search engine.
This isn’t disinformation unless you don’t believe Zelensky.
yeah, not exactly the most unbiased source, I recon. If something is disinformation or not shouldn’t really hinge on whether you believe someone, btw.
Besides that, we’re talking about large scale violations.
So? Even easier to get sources, right?And even more suspicious that it doesn’t ring any bells.
The sources you supplied are literally participants in the NATO/Russia conflict.
I suggest using a search engine.
Pardon my French, but: Screw you.
Well the source is one of a number that document violations of the Minsk agreement. You don’t just need to read that one and it’s from 8 years ago I just grabbed it to show how long Russia has been ignoring their related ceasefire agreements. I think the source is relatively neutral but you are right it may have some bias, it’s about as neutral as English language sources come though.
I think this post may be off in interpreting or wording because Russia has had major violations of a number of treaties, notably recently the Minsk agreement but I think Zelensky is talking about 25 major violations not 25 separate agreements.
Regardless of all of that, Russia has a very long history of not honoring their truces and ceasefires and using them as a reprieve to beef up their military forces before continuing to fight.
Your French has been pardoned but fuck you too pal.
The source still is the US government, i.e. NATO. It can hardly be interpreted as impartial.
You’re touching on why “just google it” is a horrible advice: sources in english language will emphasize the western consensus who have a vested interest in weakening Russia and are in an active economical war with Russia. it’s really hard to find english speaking, impartial sources.
From what I found online, while the claims of “genocide” are blown out of proportion, Ukraine has still also violated the Minsk treaty by attacking Donbas.
I think it’s important to note that I don’t want to condone neither Russia, nor Ukraine. Even if everything is true about Russian minorities in the Donbas: I don’t think that being conscripted is too much better. But I also think that the Ukrainian state is using its’ own population as cannon-fodder to fight a proxy war for the west (if it weren’t a proxy war, the changing stance of the US wouldn’t be as big of a problem).
Fuck states. All of them. No war but class war.
What do you want me to say, that it’s clear Russia continually violates ceasefire for the past 20 years of various nation states?
Like idk you can go find plenty of sources that say that I’m sure some won’t be in English but you’re not going to ever find something from Russia themselves that says “yeah we violated this shit”
Seriously they should just assassinate Putin at this point. If he’s anything like Trump then half of Russia will be joyful.
Russians overwhelmingly understand this is a defensive war for them. The most extreme delusional propaganda we are fed is that provoking this war would help overthrow Putin with pro NATO liberalism. NATO is not a purely defensive alliance desperately trying to convince Russians of love and freedom from submission to them.
Yes, I’m sure Russians believe that invading another nation and sending their children to die is “defensive.” After all, they’re fed the propaganda of the fascist dictator, Putin. Just as the people of North Korea are made to believe the outside world is evil…
The far-right in Ukraine was slaughtering ethnic Russians for 8 years before the invasion, and letting NATO move in missile & troop deployments to the Russian border. Yes, that kind of thing makes people feel as though they’re on the defensive.
Oh he’s worse than Trump, in that most of russia actually worships him. He’s literally not giving his country a chance to think about alternatives.
Can someone explain how you are supposed to get Russia to leave? Sanctions didn’t work, lethal aid didn’t work, F-16s didn’t work, and striking Russia itself isn’t either.
You can argue for the war to continue I suppose, but Ukraine isn’t winning and I’m not seeing anything here that would change that fact.
People expect Ukrainians to fight to the last man, for honor or some shit, and its gross. People are dying, and they’ve been at a stalemate for years. The outcome of this was never going to be good, considering the West has never given a single shit about Ukraine. Even before the war, the US toyed with them and blocked them from joining NATO for YEARS. With all the wars the West loses, you’d think they’d know when to call it off.
It’s literally a meat grinder with libturds cheering on the side placing bets.
Are you sure that Ukraine is not winning?
It is a war of attrition with Russia against the amount of aid the West is willing to provide to Ukraine.
The only way Russia wins is if the US changes the balance of power by enriching Russia (dropping sanctions) or impoverishing Ukraine (dropping support).
If they were winning, we’d see russian advances on the battlefield stopping or being reversed, and what we are seeing is the exact opposite.
The advances are minuscule (18% in thee years?!), and Ukraine is starting to have successes in the recent days. And they took a chunk out of Russia. And they interdicted the black fleet. And…
You know, catastropes arrive slowly, and then suddenly, you can’t extract some future information about what’s happening today.
Like I said: Ukraine has resisted and won many battles, but overall the war is not going their way. Russia has taken a small part of Ukraine, but it’s most of what they’ve claimed as theirs. If anything, the coming catastrophe is more likely to come from the ukrainian side (with all the recruitment difficulties) rather than the russian one.
Ah, but have you considered that the good guy always wins?
This seems to genuinely be how libs think about this. There’s no need for any practical considerations about what is achievable or how long it would take or how much it would cost, because the people with the best ideas will always come out on top, no matter what. The only way to lose is to corrupt the purity of the cause and of the ideal, practical/material considerations are unimportant and somehow unclean and distasteful to even consider.
“Just world theory,” I suppose.
So they should give up and let Russia re-arm and try again?
Let me call you little Timmy. Now Timmy, sometimes in life, there is no correct choice. It’s the collection of a lot of bad choices that possibly possibly open gateways into root causes which most people are in such denial that it won’t be addressed. I think it’s time to hit the books to truly understand the topics that everybody wants to talk about. Like the majority of the internet is just ignoring other people’s viewpoints for some reason. Like it’s not a serious forum. and maybe this was all by design, seeing that education is bought and paid for by special interest groups. Basically, you sometimes got to stand up on your own and have your own opinions and it’s pearls before swine time to move on. Basically, Timmy, don’t let them get you. They’ll never listen.
You’re right, they should just be at war forever. The American Way.
Maybe they will attack again, but is throwing every last body they have to their deaths somehow going to help?
The F-16s mainly replace the losses of Ukraine‘s Air Force.
Yes, but they very much were not the game changers as touted by western leaders. Russia still very much has air superiority, which has been key for their battlefield results.
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Can someone explain how you are supposed to get Russia to leave? Sanctions didn’t work, lethal aid didn’t work, F-16s didn’t work, and striking Russia itself isn’t either.
These things haven’t won the war, but they most definitely are working. Russia’s economy is crippled, their military is running out of old equipment to cannibalize, and they lack the capability to produce the kinds of advanced military equipment they need. They’ve been throwing bodies into the meat grinder trying to overwhelm Ukraine, but despite the high cost they are making very little progress. This is not a great long term strategy, but it’s the one Russia has been stuck with.
You can argue for the war to continue I suppose, but Ukraine isn’t winning and I’m not seeing anything here that would change that fact.
But what’s the alternative? Right now Ukraine can only fight or surrender. While they fight, they can try to negotiate a peace deal, but so far the only deals Putin and Trump seem willing to consider are nearly indistinguishable from surrender. Give Russia everything they want, give up on everything you want, stop the fighting for now but put nothing in place to ensure that Russia won’t just rearm and invade again later.
There’s no evidence that Russia is going to lose steam economically or on the battlefield any time soon. Continuing to fight a losing war will only make any final deal between the US, Russia and Ukraine worse for the latter. There’s a reason the 2022 treaty that was proposed looks unrealistic today, and whatever deal they make now will be much better than when they finally run out of men in the Ukrainian army.
With the situation as it stands, negotiating is the best way out if you actually care about Ukraine. If you just want to weaken Russia then sure, fight to the last ukrainian.
https://www.russiamatters.org/blog/russias-economy-collapsing
That’s weird considering every single thing I’ve read about Russia’s economy recently has been that it’s going to collapse soon.
Edit: not a fascist
A lot of news about this conflict has been about what Ukraine would like to be true, rather than the facts.
Well, I ran this through several media bias checkers - it came back as unbiased. Site leans a little left, but that’s about it.
So tell me again, what are you trying to say? Because if your answer is more or less ‘it’s propaganda’ - I’m not sure I should entertain this topic any further.
I’m not sure I understand. The article you have linked concludes with:
Writing for The Bell, Russian economy experts Alexander Kolyandr and Alexandra Prokopenko also disputed what they described as “claims of an imminent catastrophe” for the Russian economy. “In our view, all things being equal, it’s unlikely that the economy will implode soon,” they write. They have a point.
Which just agrees with what I’ve said about sanctions not working.
Why the world should care
In our view, all things being equal, it’s unlikely that the economy will implode soon, forcing Russia to scale back its military campaign in Ukraine; or that deposits will be frozen. That doesn’t mean, however, that nothing will ever happen to deposits, nor that the banking sector will always be trouble-free. However, there are far bigger threats to the Russian economy at the moment: for example, a lack of transparent decision-making, little independent expertise, and the classification of much economic data all undermines trust in the authorities. This is more likely to, eventually, lead to some sort of hard-to-predict, man made crisis.
This is the article written by Alexander Kolyandr and Alexandra Prokopenko. https://en.thebell.io/no-russia-is-not-on-the-verge-of-a-banking-crisis/
So, they dispute the idea that there will be a credit/ banking crisis. They do not dispute that the Russian economy is in bad shape.
Figures of the week
Inflation in Russia might be starting to slow. Between January 1 and January 13, prices went up 0.67%, which suggests annual inflation of 9.9% (it was 9.5% last year). However, January’s figures reflect one-off boosts from increased sales of alcohol and tobacco, a further rise in the recycling fee for cars, higher public transport fares and a weakening ruble. Together with a fall in consumer demand and an increase in consumer borrowing, this could mean inflation will peak in the first half of the year. In the absence of external shocks (such as tighter sanctions) this could pave the way for lower interest rates.
So, no, they do not agree that sanctions would not work. In fact, they imply here that an external shock like tighter sanctions would likely cause inflation to continue rising.
What would be most likely to cause a man made crisis if not the value of the rouble decreasing further + a continued bloody war?
There’s no evidence
There’s no evidence period about anything that’s not propaganda right now. Either side could be days away from total collapse without any of us knowing it.
True, but there are a few things we can glean through the war propaganda. The fact that Ukraine is outgunned to this day on the battlefield isn’t some big state secret.
These things haven’t won the war, but they most definitely are working. Russia’s economy is crippled, their military is running out of old equipment to cannibalize, and they lack the capability to produce the kinds of advanced military equipment they need. They’ve been throwing bodies into the meat grinder trying to overwhelm Ukraine, but despite the high cost they are making very little progress.
Ukrainian propaganda that they’ve been winning all along. Russian military production is over 70% higher than at start of war, 30%/year last 2, and they gain territory every week with a weapons advantage including when new western arms shipments come in. Believing your fantasy is pro suiciding of Ukrainians.
The only deals Putin and Trump seem willing to consider are nearly indistinguishable from surrender.
The same deal from Russia was always on table for avoiding the war. Absolutely zero reason to think it was ever insincere or not meant to put both countries back at peace. If Ukraine’s goal for a ceasefire is to rearm and resume terrorism operations on liberated regions of Ukraine, then Ukraine needs a new leader to get a lasting peace. Again, zero reason that Russia won’t abide by peace it demands. US led Ukraine on the wrong track, and Ukraine Russia relations can get back on right track with “traditional attitude rulership”
Wow kremlin talking points all over. Nothing to see here, tag the person and move on!
Wow, a libturd who uses minorities as a human shield. People who talk about peace, love, and acceptance as they cheer on a proxy war. You all live in a bubble like a little tiny vacuum of understanding. It’s the self-satisfaction of libturds that really grinds by gears.
Trusting peace with Russia, I understand to be a difficult ask, but they were at peace before US control. The military production rate is verifiably serious, and by far the most dangerous aspect to be disinformed on.
More talking points from the kremlin, nothing to see, tag and move on!
Absolutely zero reason to think it was ever insincere
Bahahaha. Bahahahahhahahahahahahaha. Fuck you.
You’re right, the Ukrainians should just give up on all these uppity notions of national sovereignty and self determination. They are in Russia’s sphere of influence, their place is to do what Russia says. It’s their fault if they don’t listen and Putin has to give them a black eye, that’s just him correcting them and showing he cares.
They should welcome their Russian liberators, so they can finally see how wonderful life under Russian rule is. Just ask the people of Bucha and Mariupol, they’ll be happy to tell you (if you can find a Ouija board in Cyrillic).
give up on all these uppity notions of national sovereignty and self determination
Mostly right. They should retain their sovereignty of what’s left of Ukraine. Give up ambitions of ruling over people they hate and have killed since 2014. They should realize that US puppetry did not pay off, and resume normal relations with Russia.
Bucha was a propaganda theater.
So you believe there is some magical weapon “X”, when given to Ukraine, will make Russia leave? There is one, it’s nuclear bomb lol. Other than that, it’s not a specific weapon type that has to be provided, but a steady flow of a range of weapons.
The point I’m making is that they are receiving the weapons the US and Europe can make/spare, and they are still losing on the battlefield. If negotiating is not the way to go (as the meme implies) then what’s the way to victory? As it’s going, every man in Ukraine will die and they’ll still lose.
If Russia is winning the war of attrition, why did they bring North Korea in?
The evidence for that is tenuous at best.
Collapse of russia.
“Every man” will not die, because they intentionally not mobilising the young men. They also did hold for several months completely by themselves while West was scared and only talked about sending diapers & bandage. They also survived when US stopped their aid completely for 6 month. It’s been 3 years since the hold against a supposedly “2nd army in the world”, so they are definitely not losing. They did an incredibly well job given their resources, if they ask for more, who we are to decide for them?
“Every man” will not die, because they intentionally not mobilising the young men.
You mean literal children and university-age “men”? I guess everyone else dying would be fair game though, right?
What an insane statement.
The only reason they haven’t lowered the age of conscription further is because it’s very unpopular and the current government can’t afford the political hit.
They have resisted to the best of their ability, yes. No one can deny that, but even then they are being pushed back more and more as time goes on. And that is, in fact, losing. Specially in a war of attrition like we are seeing.
They did an incredibly well job but are still losing the war and territory because Russia has more meat to throw on the battlefield and a bigger economy.
Dragging the war with foreign aid is not providing any resolution, it’s making the EU look as weak headless chicken who can’t come up with a concrete plan to stop a war on its doorstep.
Oh, okay. So no need to fight wars anymore. We can tell who will win by eye. And the country who we eye-spot will lose the war should just throw away their sovereignty to the aggressors from the start since they can’t win.
America spends the most on defense, so they’ll probably win in any war. Then, I guess America should just de-facto rule the world. United Earth of America, everyone. Resistance is futile.
So you think that if they keep fighting they’ll turn it around sometime in the future?
Probably by getting NATO & the US out, and the far-right regime they installed dismantled.
That would’ve have worked in February 2022, but Russia has commited too much to settle for just that.
Russia has never asked for anything else. They don’t want Nazis on their doorstep. Who would?
Source: Zelensky.
For an interesting, not meme-like reading about these ceasefires, you could reach this timeline.
The meme talks about 2014 to 2022, your sub stack post about 2021 to 2025, so one is talking about the conflict leading up to the full invasion by Russia, the other is talking about what happened after the Russian invasion. They are closely related but not the same.
No, not the same, but it’s a good start point.
Stop lying.
Okay.
His only hope is going to be assassinating Putin and hope the next person ends it.
I don’t recall hearing about 20 ceasefire agreements.
I think somebody has misunderstood a comment made by Zelenskyy at the International Summit on the Support of Ukraine, held this February just passed. Zelenskyy said:
We remember that Russia has violated the ceasefire more than 25 times since 2014.
Zelenskyy is talking about the ceasefire which formed part of the Minsk agreements. Representatives from both Ukraine and Russia signed these agreements, with the final protocol’s first point being:
- To ensure an immediate bilateral ceasefire.
This is the ceasefire agreement which Russia has violated. That is to say, there haven’t been 20 separate ceasefire agreements, there was one which Zelenskyy told the Summit Russia had violated more than 25 times.
That makes more sense. 20 separate ceasefire agreements in the space of ~8 years would be quite eyebrow raising.
Fool me once, shame on me, fool me 20 times and I should sign away half my country’s mineral wealth for no guarantees and no gains…
So what’s the alternative?
Give Ukraine everything they need to kick the Russians off their soil. Tomahawks, F35s, a million artillery shells a week, etc… lift all usage restrictions with the exception of civilian targets and infrastructure. Once every square inch of Ukraine is back in Ukrainian hands full NATO membership and a Marshall like recovery plan.
Or assassinate Putin. As long as Putin lives Ukraine is under threat.
and infrastructure.
No. That has to go. The war will end a lot sooner, if there aren’t any bridges and rails left, the Russkies can use to ship ammo and cannon fodder.
I meant civilian infrastructure. So like power stations or shipping centers that handle civilian goods or subways etc… If it carries a single artillery round it’s fair game.
That’s unsustainable, brainless and unrealistic, who is going to pay and fight if the war continues for 5 more years, what about 10 more years?
Russia does not have the capacity to fight 5 or 10 more years (unless the US backstops them). Ukraine does not need the resources to go 10 years. They need the resources to outlast the Russians. That is probably more like 18 to 24 months. It could be less.
In my view, that is not only affordable but quite inexpensive given the benefits.
Europe and the US have contributed about $250 billion collectively over the last 3 years (Europe has contributed more). That is a small amount of money for either of them. Most of the $120 billion the US counts as Ukraine aid has been spent on new weapons systems for the United States for the US military. The US builds themselves new weapons, sends Ukraine old ones, and counts the value of the old weapons as Ukraine aid. The thing is, most of these weapons would have been decommissioned in a few years without being used (assuming the US does not enter any major wars). So, the “real” cost to the US is actually far less.
Both the US and Europe not only can sustain their current commitment. They could easily increase it without breaking a sweat. I lay no claim to it but Norway alone has a $1.7 trillion dollar pile of cash.
In my view, the real question is who is going to pay for the aftermath of Russia’s continued aggression if they are allowed to invade Ukraine?
Was it cheaper to have World War II or to stop Germany in Poland or Czechoslovakia? What would we have done in 1945 if given the chance to do it again?
Perhaps you are right that it is unrealistic. That is more an opinion than a demonstrable fact and my opinion is no better than yours.
I am not sure I can agree that it is brainless. While that is also an opinion, there are lots to facts to counter that argument.
Supporting Ukraine no matter what it takes seems like the clear and obvious choice. I guess that is why it is what every country that matters is doing (except the US—now).
Do you have a better argument?
Looks like we’ll meet again here in a few years, after thousands more will die and more territory will be lost to argue again about how this war can hypothetically end, just because Zelensky’s ego was too big.
Russia is importing North Koreans to fight. You think if Ukraine gets unlimited weapons the war will last 5 more years? What day of the 3 day invasion are we on now?
The only reason the war has lasted this long is because of the drip feeding of weapons. which was probably a ploy to extend the war and make defense contractors more rich. So yeah, end it quickly by giving Ukraine what it needs to win.
So, what’s your "totally realistic"TM solution?
Weapons don’t win wars, people do, and Ukraine has a severe troops shortage right now that will only get worse as the war goes on. You can give them all the weapons in the world, if there’s no one there to fire them, they’ll still lose
These people are delusional, the liberation of Ukraine can only happen if NATO troops land on the battlefield. And we all know that means nuclear war.
It only means Nuclear War if Putin decides he’s ready to die.
its not a gaurantee he flips a switch and decides to unleash fire the second NATO starts shooting at him, good chance he scuffles off and cuts his losses, if the fighting is contained to Ukraine and the border, its not a given that he’d condemn himself and his empire to death over the wasteland that is the Donbas
That is fundementally wrong. Firepower absolutely makes up for numbers disadvantage.
if a hundred Russians, Norks and other Mercenaries and their vehicles get smoked in a battle by a single cluster bomb. Rinse and repeat
And if you’re wrong and the war can indeed go on for 10 more years are you prepared to deal with the consequences of the destruction of Ukraine, potentially nuclear war and destabilization of Europe?
Theory that more weapons wins is based on Russia being overextended and not outproducing west by itself. Your point on “endless war being perfect US policy” is the right one. Wining a war is always terrible. It means an end to war, and just look at how sad everyone around here is about that prospect. That Ukraine could suffer far more destruction, as retaliation for the special weapons it uses for terrorism inside Russia, is far more likely, as is striking western nations as punishment for “breaking the script of a slow war of attrition with eventual Russian victory”.
ATCMS got Ukraine electricity sector destroyed, instead of winning. US can produce 60 per year.
Can you really not imagine an alternative?
I see plenty of alternatives, just not one in which people stop dying immediately.
History teaches us that Russia cease fire agreements mean that fewer die immediately but that lasts a far shorter time than you hope for. In the end, even more people die than before when Russia resumes their aggression.
This is not a prediction or an opinion. That are literally dozens of historical events to draw this information from.
According to what you’re saying, the only solution is NATO troops fighting in Ukraine because we cannot trust Russia in any way, shape or form.
When are you willing to enroll to go to the front?
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That an ally offers security guarantees and support to rebuild after defeating their biggest military threat?
If somebody fools you twenty times they are (best case scenario) literally Loki.
I dunno, there are a tonne of incredibly stupid and uncreative people who conservatives believe every day for years. The part about loki seems to be a statisical outlier not just “best case scenario”, ya know?
