Honestly the 2008 real estate/subprime bubble felt the same way. People were talking about the bubble popping for what seemed like forever until it actually did.
And yet, so many people had their retirement totally boned by the surprise collapse. A looooot of people missed the signs of 2007 as they turned into 2008. It wasn’t some clear sign that everyone talked about. Things just felt off and wobbly.
I dunno, man. I’ve been hearing about the bubble popping for half as long as LLMs have been in popular use. At least 18 months, almost up to 2 years of bubble doomerism for something that’s only been out and really in common use for 3 and a half years or so. To me, that’s closer to the sky is falling doomers that at every year is an economic collapse. Say it 20 years in a row and you’ll get a hit eventually. It’s not skill or accuracy, it’s simply statistics.
Honestly the 2008 real estate/subprime bubble felt the same way. People were talking about the bubble popping for what seemed like forever until it actually did.
And yet, so many people had their retirement totally boned by the surprise collapse. A looooot of people missed the signs of 2007 as they turned into 2008. It wasn’t some clear sign that everyone talked about. Things just felt off and wobbly.
I dunno, man. I’ve been hearing about the bubble popping for half as long as LLMs have been in popular use. At least 18 months, almost up to 2 years of bubble doomerism for something that’s only been out and really in common use for 3 and a half years or so. To me, that’s closer to the sky is falling doomers that at every year is an economic collapse. Say it 20 years in a row and you’ll get a hit eventually. It’s not skill or accuracy, it’s simply statistics.