I think ar might be a dead dream in its current state, I always thought wed have proper ar glasses by now because I fell for Magic Leaps Marketting, not sure if it’ll come anytime soon.
What I do believe is coming is the resurgence of computers through mobile phones. Everyone has a powerful computer in their pockets but isn’t able to use them to their full potential. I wouldn’t be suprised if android pushed out a proper android desktop experience letting android users get the full linux desktop experience when plugged into a monitor, mouse, and keyboard.
Phone performance is stronger than the average laptops/netbooks from 10 years age and they run linux fine for everyday use. Feels like a missed opportunity if someone doesn’t drop a phone or os that lets you take advantage of modern hardwares capability. They could advertise it to families, mo more buying a pc for school, just get them hardware for their existing device, it can already do everything. Schools could use lapdocks, or tabletdocks, that could force school parental controls on devices while at school and still let them use it for their education while in class.
(obviously not everyone has a phone but that frees up resources for the kids that dont, if the kids that do can use cheaper docks with their exisitnt hardware)
AI may well be done it’s explosive growth anyway. Assume all my predictions in that case are “x existing application continues to expand”.
I actually think AR is still coming - it just needs really specialised hardware to work and have acceptable battery life.
The issue with mobile OSs on desktop is that they’re designed to depend on conventional OSs right now. There’s no way to develop an Android app on Android, and debugging your Android from itself is possible, but only as a hack.
On to my own predictions. I’m limiting this to computers, not all technology, which I think was intended.
The fediverse slowly grows.
Geopolitics significantly weakens the US tech monopolies. FOSS benefits, although they probably are replaced by more commercial platforms for the most part.
More likely than not somebody actually mandates cryptography backdoors. It’s a boondoggle, although it might not fully unravel in the window given.
There’s a chance crytographically-significant quantum computing comes early and causes pandemonium. Bitcoin becomes (nearly?) worthless.
Okay, I will mention one AI thing. It’s going to find a place in rendering pipelines for videogames.
The trend to heterogeneous computing continues. Analog and reversible chips become part of the mix.
Nix-type immutable systems become daily driveable.
I used to spend all day daydreaming about ai in class back in middleschool/highschool, magic leap had me thinking we were days away from virtual cod/harry potter dueling, real life yugioh, pokemon go had me thinking glasses were a year away lol. I’ve just needed to give up on AR for my own sanity, It’s the one thing that feels magical when it comes to tech still and gets me delusional/overhyped. Reality would just be ads everywhere.
I think they just rolled out tools that allow you to do development on mobile actually. I forget where I read about it though.
Oh really? I’ll have to go looking for that. Not being able to easily hack things on my phone is a PITA.
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It just makes sense to me to make android phones the all in 1, now your phone is actually also your computer, much better than trying to sell chromebooks and make that work
Im forsure delusional with schools tho theyll prob sell them chromebooks forever
This is already a thing
Samsung DeX was the first big one but there are a bunch of competing ones that do similar things now.
its just android reskinned sadly, not actually using linux desktop, sure its decent for multitasking but its just android apps reframed still
Can’t you just use GNURoot Debian and XServer SDL to get a Linux desktop env on any Android phone?
There’s an xda-developers guide on this and the two apps are still in the Google Play Store, so I assume it’s still feasible.
I’m not sure how well it plays with DeX and other similar solutions, though.
That’s assuming the apps aren’t capable enough to handle being used on a desktop on their own, of course. What sorts of gaps did you see, and in which sorts of apps?
always workarounds for technical ppl, itd be completely different if it was built into android tho and came with an update to existing phones
What are the gaps in functionality for nontechnical people? And “apps that exist on Linux but not Android” doesn’t count, because such people are unlikely to have ever even used a Linux desktop in the first place. The improvement that matters won’t be Linux apps; it’ll be Android apps that are more usable in desktop mode.
That said, what are the issues with the apps that are currently available?
If a user installed Chrome, an office suite (whether that be Google Docs, Sheets, and Slides, the Microsoft equivalent, or something else), an email client, and other commonly available apps, what tasks would they be unable to complete, if any?
Are these, or other commonly used apps, substantially less usable than on desktop? If so, how so?
You dont have to be technical to find use out of an appstore like flathub especially if it was built in to the playstore or a seperate store
onlyoffice is a solid ms word, ppt, excel clone for linux, same file format, any linux app, there are many, linux games? wine, hella options?
OnlyOffice is available on Android already.
“any linux app” - I don’t think any nontechnical users want GParted on their Android phones, and it wouldn’t work anyway.
Android has its own games, same as iOS. Nontechnical users are way more likely to want Windows games than Linux games anyway.
Wine used to be developed natively for Android but they stopped a few years back. You can still download it at winehq though. I think Box64 with wine is a decent option?
Overall the thing I’m confused about is why you think Google or any major Android phone manufacturer have a motivation to make native Linux apps more accessible. Google certainly doesn’t want to make it easier for you to use the better versions of their competitors’ apps. Google is moving further away from Linux, not closer. Providing a usable, good enough desktop experience that’s still Android underneath makes far more sense for them.
Fortunately, like I said earlier, there are workarounds to get access to those Linux apps.
The thing that is more likely to change is for the creators of Android apps to build apps that function better when used in a phone-as-desktop format. And even if they don’t, there are enough competent web apps out there that just being able to use your browser full screen on a monitor solves 90% of people’s actual use cases - and probably over 95% when you include the other apps that have decent desktop experiences that can be run alongside them.
The Steam Deck approach is much closer to what you seem to want. The Steam Deck is an actually competent Linux machine that has a Valve-supported compatibility layer in Proton for running non-Linux games. It plugs into a USB-C hub connected to a monitor, mouse, and keyboard just fine, can install any Linux app, etc… It’s completely usable handheld as well. But it isn’t a phone, and even though it’s quite portable, it’s not “stick into your pocket” portable.
I don’t expect a major manufacturer to make a Linux phone any time soon, and I don’t think the Linux phones that are out already have - or will have in the next 5 years - a smooth enough experience to convince any nontechnical user to switch.
blender, dj software like mixx, davinci resolve, video editors, kdenlive, etc. full desktop versions of apps sht on mobile versions still
There are mobile versions for all of those?
It makes no sense to think about the future of technology while ignoring one of the biggest technological developments to date. Whatever you think of AI, it’s necessarily going to shape every aspect of technological development going forward.
One example I can give you off top of my head is that traditional user interfaces will likely be going away. There’s no need to have a complex UI the user has to learn to navigate when you can just use language to describe what you want. You will just ask the agent to find whatever information you need, and present it in a specific way to you. Think of it as having a personal secretary who compiles information for you, and makes presentations.
I personally don’t care about AI and am tired of hearing about this, I made this post and specifically put no AI to hear about anything else
If you’re interested in AR, you should pay attention to AI too since it looks like the two fields will be intersecting very soon, if not already. Meta has been putting a lot of work into dense point tracking models with very impressive results. It’s probably safe to assume AR is their intended application of the tech given their investments in the Meta-verse.
I’m just pointing out that it makes little sense to talk about how technology will develop in the next 5 years while ignoring the biggest factor that will drive the direction of technological development.
Makes plenty of sense, itll still develop in other directions, only vibe coder bros think it’ll encompass anything and everything or that it should. If you want to talk about machine learning in medicine go for it, generative Ai is boring to talk about, I don’t care for it, you have infinite threads to talk about it why choose this one. There are infinite topics in this world that can be covered without ai needing to be spoken about.
Generative AI is just the tip of the iceberg. For example, Huawei AI targets industry upgrades as opposed to chatbots. This has applications in medicine, robotics, research, hardware design. Letting your biases blind you to what’s actually happening with technology leads to myopia.
IM NOT BLIND TO SHIT HOLY SHIT, WHY ARE YOU BEING OBTUSE ON PURPOSE, IM NOT BANNING ALL AI DISCUSSION EVER FROM LEMMY I SIMPLY SAID NO AI FOR THIS SINGULAR THREAD, WHY IS FOLLOWING DIRECTIONS SO DIFFICULT FOR AI DICKRIDERS
The all-caps delivery really frames your thesis beautifully.
We’ll pay more for less in terms of software, and we’ll pay more for more in terms of hardware, but nearly everybody would happily buy less. For example, the cheapest phones will be $1k+ but with unused bells and whistles, and there will be a subscription paywall to use Google maps.
We’ll have less privacy and security. Our devices will be used to spy on us even more than now.
PlayStation 6 will come out. The next Xbox will have a really fucking stupid name. Call of Duty will be a 250GB game.
It will become more feasible to implement battery tech in your home. Generators will give way to a big battery for power outages. Areas with variable power rates will see people supplement their home power with battery during the day and charge them back up at night. EV adoption will continue to rise. Self driving tech will not change in a meaningful way. Fusion power will be commercially implemented, but barely break even, which is fine because that’s how new tech takes early steps to optimize.
China will be far and away ahead of the US in terms of infrastructure, daily consumer tech, and overall happiness. The US will pretend otherwise and launch a targeted propaganda campaign to keep its people too dumb and busy to notice how badly they’re getting fucked. But even worse than now, though.
Healthcare tech will expand. But not in the US. Not for the working class, anyway. Measles outbreaks will come in waves. Flu and a new covid strain will be devastating within 18 months. Polio will pop back up like measles currently is. Maybe TB too. Mental health will continue to get stigmatized if not fully ignored.
Physical media will be basically gone. Disc drives will as rare as actual audio CDs are in everyday life.
Lab grown meat will be more affordable, and it will bring a culture war with it.
Maybe in the US but rest of the world has access to budget Chinese smartphones .
I could see apple maps and google colluding, both dropping paywalls same year
I’ve been trying to use organic maps more often
Think companies will track us in our homes using wifi and well just have to accept it, like they track our actions on websites, where we click and look
Think companies will track us in our homes using wifi and well just have to accept it
But yes, more companies will.
You’re probably right about all of this.
The next Xbox will have a really fucking stupid name.
Okay, but that one is kind of a freebie. Haha.
idk physical drives have gotten real cheap and plentiful, but I do trust the cloud more than myself and thats always getting cheaper
trigger happy police drones - I Can’t Believe It’s Not A Real Cop ™
Probably contains “AI”, though.
We will see more and more ridiculous subscriptions. I’m talking about $200+ a month. It could be cloud services (AI or not) streaming bundle, phone plan, car entertainment plan, etc.
Top 10% accounts for 50% of consumer spending. This trend only gets worse, and soon enough, companies will stop caring about poor people and tailor their services to the rich.
Restrictive OSs and stuff will become the new normal, essentially stripping us of our freedom, more things will become 1st Party only and moving your data will be even harder than ever, essentially becoming cultural houses, basically what apple has already done
linux is getting a push due to windows becoming more and more abusive with how they force you to use a certain ui filled with ads and ai bs
Big tech will try and create a cartel to make open source less usable. Google is already pushing Manifest V3 to make development of browsers extensions more difficult, Microsoft could try and use TPM to only allow running “certified” software, and that could be the end of OpenSource as we know it
Its really easy to be honest, you just have to slowly take away everything and give them choices, and they will be so occupied with discussing what they want to choose, they will not even notice how we slowly strangle them
Windows update: you can no longer move the start button position people get crazy Windows update: UI improvement, now you can customize the start button position
In the meanwhile: recall, more spying, microsoft account and internet connection required for installation
problem is everybody is on phones now, and its even more locked down and complicated on that side.
Y’know how things have mostly gotten worse for the past five years, with most innovation going towards corporate control, and nearly all tech services moving towards enshittification?
Yeah five more years of that.
I actually feel like they’ve beat the heck out of the 5 before that. GDPR is a thing, and Windows increasingly isn’t.
I think it will keep following the cycles of “Make small gadget larger —> Make larger gadget smaller —> Make small gadget larger again …” and “Turn several gadgets into one —> Turn one gadget into several —> Turn several gadgets into one again …” to make sure you have to replace your gadgets for new gadgets at regular intervals. They probably will find some new annoying feature to add to all your appliances once everything from your phone to your kitchen sink has a touchscreen and a WIFI connection.
if you have one device they could just sell you infinite subs to upgrade it, instead of hardware you rent hardware over your high speed internet, offloading resources, like video editors where rendering takes place in the cloud with that feature built in being served by google not a third party
I don’t think much will change in 5 years that is not AI.
Everything is focused on AI right now. So just more powerful hardware that is geared towards running ai is all I think that will happen.
Lots of technology has reached a good-enough plateau, so I think we’ll start to see some left-field ideas. I’m just going to say realistic robot pets.
I could see that happening forsure, maybe virtual pets, desktop buddies making a comeback could be cool
- Phones won’t start including a Linux desktop.
- Browser apps will be a thing of the past, you’ll need to install either a mobile or desktop app to use YouTube or Netflix or whatever.
- Sites like YouTube will also probably remove the subscriptions feed (which only like 1-2% of people use).
- Vendor lock-in efforts will be more forceful.
- I think more people will start touching grass.
And putting AI aside is a bit weird since it’s the big news story so:
- Companies will replace workers with generative AI, and as a result essential services will be worse (but more profitable).
- Generative AI will outside of the above be used as a (low-reliability but low-effort) search engine, for memes, and in animation.
Open source devices will become more mainstream as a push back by consumers against enshitifcation, privacy invasion, disposable products, ever rising subscription costs.
Not just things like phones and laptops but things like mice, keyboards, headphones, even tvs and kitchen appliances. I know some of these are possible now, I use a ploppy trackball and qmk based keyboards but a wider spread of these across the home and more than just hobbyists like myself.
Large chunks will be 3D printed, moving the large component parts of manufacting to the local area. Plus things will be endlessly fixable and upgradable.
The thing is, injection molding is just dummy cheap at scale. If you have a significant run of open source hardware it still makes sense.
Chips are also pretty impossible to make at small scale, so you have to account for that. To date it’s possible to find a decent chipset, but I worry it might not always be.
All of which is true but it doesn’t matter if the product is crippled by the designer. Whole point of my model is that you are the designer so its only shit if you are.
Yeah, I’m not saying proprietary enshittified hardware is good, lol.
And I think that at some point enough people will have had enough that they take on production of that themselves via open source projects.
Sure, some will always be driven by cost, thats never going to change, but self sustainability will become more desirable as main stream brands, not just temu tat, drops in quality.
AR is not dead but it will take much longer than expected to be as light and comfortable as a pair of sunglasses.
I’m hoping to see a lot of progress in display tech. We’ve already seen first transparent screens but there is still work to be done. I would love to let my monitors „disappear“ when not in use. Also flexible displays are maturing, this could get interesting.
